A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
